Florida Justice Reform Institute

Business groups demand that Florida craft virus lawsuit protections

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Sarasota Herald Tribune

Business groups demand that Florida craft virus lawsuit protections

John Kennedy – Sarasota Herald-Tribune
Published 09:37 pm – Nov. 27, 2020

TALLAHASSEE – Business groups have been clamoring for months for Florida lawmakers to enact measures aimed at protecting stores, cruise ships, health care providers and nursing homes slapped by hundreds of lawsuits stemming from the coronavirus pandemic.

Florida’s new Republican leaders say they are willing to approve some safeguards for businesses. But how far they’ll go is uncertain.

Meanwhile, some question whether there really is a looming courtroom crisis.

“It’s a solution in search of a problem,” said Paul Jess, executive director of the Florida Justice Association, which represents trial lawyers in Florida.

“There have been lawsuits filed,” he added. “But they all face a huge causation problem. They have to prove that someone caught COVID because of a business’s negligence. And that often is just not a winnable case.”

Gov. DeSantis: Vaccines will go to Florida’s long term care facilities as soon as they arrive When can I get my vaccine? ACIP, a little known but crucial advisory panel, releases first safety, distribution guidelines USA TODAY vaccine panel: ‘Best news so far’ in COVID-19 fight, but logistical challenges remain

While it’s not surprising that a trial lawyers’ group would oppose any measures limiting courtroom access, Florida Republicans leading the Legislature also are supporting  the broad concept of shielding businesses from lawsuits related to COVID-19 exposure or transmission.

But they acknowledge they don’t know exactly how to do it.

“I think we all agree it’s a problem that we need to figure out the best way to solve,” said House Speaker Chris Sprowls, R-Palm Harbor.

Sprowls said it was important that companies “trying to do the best thing for their customers and employees don’t get blindsided by a frivolous lawsuit, while making sure that somebody who was doing the wrong thing, that they’re still held accountable.”

Senate President Wilton Simpson, R-Trilby, said it was important that any legislation not “let people off the hook for negligence.”

“I don’t think you ever in any condition put a blanket statement … that no one would have any liability associated with COVID,” he said. “But I think if you’ve made the right attempt to follow the CDC (federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention) guidelines, then that’s something we should take a look at.”

 Woman in grocery store Florida businesses want lawmakers to enact new protections from lawsuits stemming from COVID-19 exposure or transmission.  Sarah Gonzalez, NPR

From the earliest weeks of the pandemic, the Florida Chamber of Commerce and the Florida Justice Reform Institute, which lobbies to reduce the legal risks facing businesses, have spearheaded the effort for lawsuit limits. More than a dozen states so far have enacted some kind of liability protection.

The COVID-19 Complaint Tracker, a national database maintained by the law firm Hunton Andrews Kurth, showed 483 lawsuits have been filed in Florida related to the virus.

But about one-quarter of these complaints involve insurance companies, which Jess said mostly involve companies suing their insurers for failing to make good on business interruption policies supposed to help cover losses caused by the virus.

Still, William Large, president of the Florida Justice Reform Institute, said many other lawsuits have been filed against nursing homes by staff, patients and their families, cruise lines by passengers and crews, tour companies by customers in refund disputes and a host of workplace clashes tied to the coronavirus.

Large acknowledged that the lawsuits in Florida have not yet advanced to trial and could still be dismissed by a judge on legal grounds that there is insufficient proof that a business played a role in spreading the infection.

Still, he said, companies can’t operate under the threat that they’ll be tied up in court defending themselves.

“Business is down 50%, 60% sometimes 70% for some companies, and others have gone bankrupt,” Large said. “On top of that, they’re going to get sued for the transmission of COVID-19 because somebody thinks they got it in a particular facility, even if everyone is following state and local guidelines, cleaning up and spraying Lysol.

“But someone walks in without symptoms and is a carrier and someone else catches it.  It’s just not right the business should be held responsible,” he added.

A 40-member industry task force this summer proposed legislation that increased the standard for COVID-related liability to gross negligence or intentional bad conduct by a firm. It also proposed a tougher “clear and convincing” standard to establish liability, rather than just a preponderance of evidence that a company acted badly.

Task force members included representatives of restaurants, hotels, nursing homes, retailers, home builders and insurers.

Large and others earlier this year pushed Gov. Ron DeSantis and legislative leaders to call a special session to address the matter, which didn’t happen. At the same time, in Washington, U.S. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell also insisted that Congress make it harder for workers and customers to sue employers and businesses for any damages related to the coronavirus.

McConnell demanded that liability protections be part of any new stimulus plan crafted to help states and jobless Americans. But so far, no agreement has been reached on another funding proposal, with several negotiations between Congress and President Donald Trump falling apart before Election Day.

President-elect Joe Biden is calling for an emergency aid package to be approved by Congress before he takes office in January, but whether liability protections fit into that are uncertain.

Congressional Democrats have argued that granting such protections would effectively give businesses and employers freedom to endanger workers without fear of repercussion.

Such concerns hover over the latest Florida drive for action.

“From a public policy point of view, if I’m a business now and there’s no immunity from COVID liability, I’m encouraged to do things properly and safely, to keep people from thinking of suing me,” Jess said.

“But if a law passed that gave me total immunity, what is my motivation for protecting the public?” he added. “As a business owner, I’d say. ‘Come on in, we don’t require masks, we don’t have social distancing.  We don’t care. You can’t sue us, we’re got total immunity.’”

https://www.heraldtribune.com/story/news/politics/state/2020/11/27/covid-florida-lawmakers-uncertain-how-far-go-lawsuit-protections/6400056002/ 

Florida Justice Reform Institute

BACKROOM BRIEFING: SETTING THE RULES

/in

 

News Service of FL

BACKROOM BRIEFING: SETTING THE RULES

11/12/2020 – Jim Turner

Sprowls

TALLAHASSEE — Incoming House Speaker Chris Sprowls this week rolled out rule changes for the 2021 legislative session, including allowing each lawmaker to file one more bill than in the past and attempting to prevent “frivolous” amendments on the House floor.

But Sprowls, who will formally become speaker during an organization session Tuesday, quickly drew some pushback from Democrats.

The Palm Harbor Republican pointed to a need to better manage time during floor sessions, which during past years have sometimes gone without a break from before lunch to after midnight.

As part of that, Sprowls wants the Rules Committee to set procedures to manage questions and debate about every bill, according to an outline of the proposed rules. That would include allocating time for questions and debate on bills and amendments.

“Given the amount of work that must be accomplished during the regular session, we must ensure that we make the best use of our schedule,” Sprowls wrote Monday as he released the proposed changes, which will go before the House for approval during the organization session.

Another part of the proposal seeks to halt “frivolous” bill amendments that do not offer a “technical or substantive purpose.” Such amendments would be ruled out of order.

“The House floor represents the one place that we as a body come together as the representatives of the people of this state,” Sprowls wrote. “The floor can be a place for lengthy, vigorous discussion without descending into desultory or self-aggrandizing behavior.”

But Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, D-Orlando, noted that no definition was given of “frivolous.” He quickly said he intends to vote against the proposed changes, which he believes are an attempt “to silence the voices of Democrats.”

“Dramatically limiting floor questions on their bills & ruling amendments out-of-order they don’t like is an unacceptable attack on the millions of Floridians who elected us,” Smith, who frequently debates on the House floor, said in a Twitter post. “This means FL House GOP will limit questions, answers and debate on every bill on the floor. It’ll be easier to ram thru whatever they want, as quickly as they want before the public has a chance to see what they’re doing. Less transparency. Less accountability. More BS.”

Odessa Democrat Jessica Harrington, who unsuccessfully ran in last week’s election in House District 64 in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, chimed in with, “Should we just change the name to the GOP Legislature with Dictator @ChrisSprowls?”

But there is likely little Democrats can do to stop Sprowls’ proposals, as the GOP picked up five seats last week to expand their majority to 78 seats in the 120-member House.

Other changes Sprowls has proposed include increasing the number of bills a member can file from six to seven; extending deadlines to file bills; allowing subcommittees to meet through the sixth week of the nine-week session, rather than the third week; and limiting proposed committee bills.

“These committee bills will be reserved for significant policy issues or required legislative housekeeping (i.e., Reviser’s Bills, Open Government Sunset Reviews),” Sprowls wrote. “The House will not be accepting routine agency packages or lobbyist-promoted bills as proposed committee bills.”  

The first of five committee weeks prior to the March 2 start of session is scheduled for the week of Jan. 11.

Sprowls noted that under the traditional calendar used for bill drafting and filing, members would have had to submit their first two proposals before Jan. 11. Under Sprowls’ schedule, Jan. 19 is the deadline to submit their first two bills for drafting and Jan. 29 is the deadline for the rest of members’ bills.

Another change is that appropriation bills filed by individual members could be handled on subcommittee consent agendas, rather than through what can be dozens of rapid-fire hearings that crowd out other issues from subcommittee agendas. However, in exchange for speeding up the reviews, Sprowls wants to require organizations requesting taxpayer dollars to file attestations with the Public Integrity & Elections Committee verifying “under penalty of perjury” the information in the bills is accurate.

SHATTERED GLASS

Windshield glass repairs will remain an issue during the 2021 session as debate continues about the controversial insurance practice known as assignment of benefits.

The Florida Justice Reform Institute, which works to rein in lawsuits, made a presentation on the issue last week at the Florida Chamber of Commerce’s Annual Insurance Summit. The presentation included an updated report about contentions that auto glass firms and their lawyers are using “new schemes” in filing windshield-replacement lawsuits that “continue draining policyholders’ benefits in 2020.”

William Large, president of the Florida Justice Reform Institute, estimated the lawsuits have grown by 30 percent in the first six months of 2020.

“Since windshields are exempt from an auto insurance policy’s deductible requirements, the prospect of a ‘no risk’ replacement has fueled a market where auto glass vendors promise consumers a free windshield — and sometimes much more — in exchange for an assignment of benefits,” a release from the institute said.

In assignment of benefits, policyholders sign over claims to contractors who then pursue payment from insurers.

Lawmakers during the 2019 session placed restrictions on assignment of benefits for property-insurance claims and debated restrictions for windshield claims.

Opponents said the potential windshield-claim restrictions would hurt small windshield-repair businesses trying to compete with larger corporations that have arrangements with insurance companies.

TWEET OF THE WEEK:  “So @marcorubio has a very clear-eyed 2024 breakdown: Field of One & the others. ‘Donald Trump brought millions of people to vote Republican that had never considered it before. And if he runs in 2024 he’ll certainly be the front-runner and will probably be the nominee.’” — Washington Post congressional reporter Paul Kane (@pkcapitol).

https://new.newsserviceflorida.com/app/post.html?postID=38837 

Florida Justice Reform Institute

Incoming Florida House speaker rolls out some rule changes for upcoming session

/in

 

Dayton Beach News Journal

Incoming Florida House speaker rolls out some rule changes for upcoming session

Jim Turner – News Service of Florida

November 12, 2020

TALLAHASSEE — Incoming House Speaker Chris Sprowls this week rolled out rule changes for the 2021 legislative session, including allowing each lawmaker to file one more bill than in the past and attempting to prevent “frivolous” amendments on the House floor.

But Sprowls, who will formally become speaker during an organization session Tuesday, quickly drew some pushback from Democrats.

The Palm Harbor Republican pointed to a need to better manage time during floor sessions, which during past years have sometimes gone without a break from before lunch to after midnight.

As part of that, Sprowls wants the Rules Committee to set procedures to manage questions and debate about every bill, according to an outline of the proposed rules. That would include allocating time for questions and debate on bills and amendments.

“Given the amount of work that must be accomplished during the regular session, we must ensure that we make the best use of our schedule,” Sprowls wrote Monday as he released the proposed changes, which will go before the House for approval during the organization session.

Another part of the proposal seeks to halt “frivolous” bill amendments that do not offer a “technical or substantive purpose.” Such amendments would be ruled out of order.

“The House floor represents the one place that we as a body come together as the representatives of the people of this state,” Sprowls wrote. “The floor can be a place for lengthy, vigorous discussion without descending into desultory or self-aggrandizing behavior.”

But Rep. Carlos Guillermo Smith, D-Orlando, noted that no definition was given of “frivolous.” He quickly said he intends to vote against the proposed changes, which he believes are an attempt “to silence the voices of Democrats.”

“Dramatically limiting floor questions on their bills & ruling amendments out-of-order they don’t like is an unacceptable attack on the millions of Floridians who elected us,” Smith, who frequently debates on the House floor, said in a Twitter post. “This means FL House GOP will limit questions, answers and debate on every bill on the floor. It’ll be easier to ram thru whatever they want, as quickly as they want before the public has a chance to see what they’re doing. Less transparency. Less accountability. More BS.”

Odessa Democrat Jessica Harrington, who unsuccessfully ran in last week’s election in House District 64 in Hillsborough and Pinellas counties, chimed in with, “Should we just change the name to the GOP Legislature with Dictator @ChrisSprowls?”

But there is likely little Democrats can do to stop Sprowls’ proposals, as the GOP picked up five seats last week to expand their majority to 78 seats in the 120-member House.

Other changes Sprowls has proposed include increasing the number of bills a member can file from six to seven; extending deadlines to file bills; allowing subcommittees to meet through the sixth week of the nine-week session, rather than the third week; and limiting proposed committee bills.

“These committee bills will be reserved for significant policy issues or required legislative housekeeping (i.e., Reviser’s Bills, Open Government Sunset Reviews),” Sprowls wrote. “The House will not be accepting routine agency packages or lobbyist-promoted bills as proposed committee bills.”  

The first of five committee weeks prior to the March 2 start of session is scheduled for the week of Jan. 11.

Sprowls noted that under the traditional calendar used for bill drafting and filing, members would have had to submit their first two proposals before Jan. 11. Under Sprowls’ schedule, Jan. 19 is the deadline to submit their first two bills for drafting and Jan. 29 is the deadline for the rest of members’ bills.

Another change is that appropriation bills filed by individual members could be handled on subcommittee consent agendas, rather than through what can be dozens of rapid-fire hearings that crowd out other issues from subcommittee agendas. However, in exchange for speeding up the reviews, Sprowls wants to require organizations requesting taxpayer dollars to file attestations with the Public Integrity & Elections Committee verifying “under penalty of perjury” the information in the bills is accurate.

SHATTERED GLASS

Windshield glass repairs will remain an issue during the 2021 session as debate continues about the controversial insurance practice known as assignment of benefits.

The Florida Justice Reform Institute, which works to rein in lawsuits, made a presentation on the issue last week at the Florida Chamber of Commerce’s Annual Insurance Summit. The presentation included an updated report about contentions that auto glass firms and their lawyers are using “new schemes” in filing windshield-replacement lawsuits that “continue draining policyholders’ benefits in 2020.”

William Large, president of the Florida Justice Reform Institute, estimated the lawsuits have grown by 30 percent in the first six months of 2020.

“Since windshields are exempt from an auto insurance policy’s deductible requirements, the prospect of a ‘no risk’ replacement has fueled a market where auto glass vendors promise consumers a free windshield — and sometimes much more — in exchange for an assignment of benefits,” a release from the institute said.

In assignment of benefits, policyholders sign over claims to contractors who then pursue payment from insurers.

Lawmakers during the 2019 session placed restrictions on assignment of benefits for property-insurance claims and debated restrictions for windshield claims.

Opponents said the potential windshield-claim restrictions would hurt small windshield-repair businesses trying to compete with larger corporations that have arrangements with insurance companies.

 https://www.news-journalonline.com/story/news/state/2020/11/12/florida-speaker-rolls-out-some-rule-changes-upcoming-legislative-seassion-politics/3762513001/ 

Florida Justice Reform Institute

Insights from Florida Chamber Insurance Summit: Liability protections needed as Session nears

/in

Fla Pol

Virus waiter

Insights from Florida Chamber Insurance Summit: Liability protections needed as Session nears

Sen. Jeff Brandes has a bill prepped to protect businesses from lawsuits related to COVID-19.

By Renzo Downey on November 6, 2020

One legislative priority identified in the Florida Chamber of Commerce’s Insurance Summit is coronavirus liability legislation.

With Congress slow to act on COVID-19 liability protections for businesses, Gov. Ron DeSantis has said he wants the Legislature to develop its own protections for businesses.

Sen. Jeff Brandes, a St. Petersburg Republican, has legislation ready to file that would protect businesses that follow state and federal health guidelines from facing lawsuits. Similarly, his bill would protect individuals from being sued by businesses.

But Florida Justice Reform Institute President William Large told a panel at the Florida Chamber of Commerce’s Insurance Summit Friday that the state should be careful with how it tailors reforms for the business community. In recent months, other states have addressed tort reform, but Large said some states have created presumptions that “if you got COVID, you got it at work.”

“I think there’s a lesson there that if the business community tries to address some type of tort or civil liability COVID bill that it make sure that it stays in that lane and doesn’t allow it to go into the lane of creating a presumption that would create further problems,” Large said.

However, Brandes says his bill would require a physician to affirm that the plaintiff became infected at the workplace.

“Generally most other contagious diseases, people aren’t suing for,” he told Florida Politics, adding that dozens of lawsuits have already been filed in Florida. “I’ve never heard of somebody suing a company because they got the flu.”

Both Brandes and Large don’t expect coronavirus liability legislation to change insurance rates or workers compensation coverage drastically, if at all. Business interruption insurance can’t cover infectious diseases, National Association of Mutual Insurance Companies Vice President Erin Collins said during the panel.

“There is absolutely no way to create a pool where you could spread the risk sufficiently when you’re talking about something that hits everywhere, everyone, all at the same time,” she said. “It’s completely contrary and therefore uninsurable.”

While the legislation is still a work in progress, it is ready to file if the Legislature decided to hold a Special Session. Currently, there are no plans for one, and Committee Weeks begin in January ahead of the Regular Session that begins in March.

Brandes expects the bill to be passed swiftly and to apply retroactively.

DeSantis has floated liability protection legislation as one of his priorities. Congress has yet to pass liability protection legislation as Republicans’ side of the “grand bargain” after Democrats secured the monetary aid in the CARES Act, he told reporters in September.

“If you just have a store and someone (gets sick) — you cannot be held liable. First of all, how would you even prove someone was — so we’ve never done that I don’t think with any other type of virus where you can be sued, so there’s a lot of concern about liability,” DeSantis said. “I think it holds the economy back.”

A task force of state business leaders later that month released a list of recommendations, including that essential businesses should be exempt from future COVID-19-related lawsuits.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/381804-insights-from-florida-chamber-insurance-summit-liability-protections-needed-as-session-nears 

Florida Justice Reform Institute

Insights from Florida Chamber Insurance Summit: Auto glass AOBs replacing property AOB market

/in

Fla Pol

Broken Windshield

Insights from Florida Chamber Insurance Summit: Auto glass AOBs replacing property AOB market

Insurance providers want protections against malicious assignment of benefits cases.

By Renzo Downey on November 5, 2020

A year after the Legislature turned down proposed protections for auto insurance companies, speakers before the Florida Chamber of Commerce again backed the effort to create protections against possible abusive litigation.

Assignment of benefits, or AOB, allows policyholders to sign over their insurance policy benefits to a third party in exchange for quick repairs. Many times, contractors and attorneys on the other end of the AOB take insurers over inflated repair costs, goading policyholders with cash incentives to stray away from their insurers’ approved repairmen.

In 2019, Gov. Ron DeSantis signed legislation to curb AOB litigation, but House leadership carved out auto glass repair AOBs from the final product, Florida Justice Reform Institute President William Large said during his segment Thursday at the Chamber’s annual Insurance Summit. Those protections now only apply to home repairs.

Since that legislation passed, FJRI found that auto glass assignment of benefits litigation has increased in Florida. Large said people basing their businesses on AOB property claims have realized they could translate the model to auto glass claims.

“They know the game is up, and it’s moved over to AOB auto glass litigation,” Large said.

As a result, Pinnacle Actuarial Resources’ Roosevelt Mosley said insurers are facing costs for court proceedings and attorneys fees, factoring into their legal calculus. Companies have begun alerting customers to the malicious practice of profiting off attorneys fees.

“There’s really another cost that’s hidden underneath that’s really not quite as apparent, which is the cost of companies deciding not to fight the claim and simply to just pay the claim,” Roosevelt said.

Those costs will likely be shifted to policyholders’ premiums across the board.

The 2019 legislation removed the complete risk of attorneys fees from insurance companies, footing some risk now with plaintiffs. Large hoped future legislation would fill the gap for auto claims.

“We’ve seen a decline in AOB property claims,” he said. “That bill worked.”

About 40% of auto glass assignment of benefits claims have come from Hillsborough County. Another 20% come from Orange County and the next-largest share come from Broward County.

“Unless there’s been an incredible hailstorm only in Hillsborough County or a meteorite storm only in Orange County, it doesn’t make sense unless this is a business model, again, that has metastasized from AOB property litigation,” Large said.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/381514-insights-from-florida-chamber-insurance-summit-auto-glass-aobs-replacing-property-aob-market 

Florida Justice Reform Institute

FL Democrats confront a hard truth: ‘We need a whole new direction’

/in

 

Florida Phoenix

FL Democrats confront a hard truth: ‘We need a whole new direction’

By Michael Moline – November 4, 2020

Voting location Photo by CD Davidson-Hiers/Florida Phoenix

Florida Democrats on Wednesday were absorbing a stunning rebuke: President Donald Trump carried Florida with 51.24 percent of the vote to Biden’s 47.85 percent, a difference of nearly 400,000 votes out of 11 million cast, according to unofficial Florida Division of Elections data.

Trump claimed Florida’s 29 electoral votes. Moreover, his party added five seats to its majority in the Florida House of Representatives and may have expanded its 23-17 majority in the state Senate. Republican Ileana Garcia holds a 21-vote lead over Democrat Jose Javier Rodriguez in Senate District 37 in Miami-Dade County, which will force a recount.

Meanwhile, South Florida Democrats Donna Shalala and Debby Murcarsel-Powell lost their seats in Congress.

How the Democrats stumbled so badly is still not known.

Jenne Rep. Evan Jenne. Credit: Florida House

But State Rep. Evan Jenne of Broward County, policy chairman for the House Democratic caucus, had this to say:

“There needs to be a major, major deep dive and autopsy — whatever term you want to put on it,” Jenne said. “Not just on what the party did but how the party is structured and what that’s going to look like going forward. Because, quite clearly, what we’re doing now ain’t working.”

Democrat Javier Fernandez, who lost Senate District 39 to Republican Ana Maria Rodriguez, on Twitter lamented his party’s “total systemic failure.”

He blamed “party, caucuses, affiliated & independent groups. People have spoken & clearly said they don’t want what we are offering. Unforgivable part is that no one saw this coming. We got beat & bad. We need to own it so we can move on & rebuild.”

Democrats are likely deciphering some of things that went wrong.

Unreturned ballots

They beat Republicans in the early vote-by-mail and in-person turnout — 3.58 million to 3.46 million, with more than 1 million no-party-affiliation early votes (not counting votes for other parties).

But they left nearly 500,000 mail-in ballots unreturned to elections supervisors, compared to nearly 370,000 for the Republicans. Those unspent Democratic ballots could have made the difference for Biden.

Florida Democratic Party chairwoman Terrie Rizzo issued the following statement:

“I would like to thank all of our down ballot Democrats, our party leaders, our staff and our volunteers who gave their blood, sweat, and tears to help Democrats win. While we are confident In the ultimate victory of Joe Biden, I know our Florida losses sting deep, for our party, the candidates, and the 5 million Florida Democrats looking to build on the progress we have made. Together with our state and national partners, we need to do a deep dive to address data and turnout issues that caused these losses, and where our party goes from here.”

Florida House Victory, the state House caucus’ campaign arm, issued this statement:

“We’re obviously disappointed with the results in statehouse races, but they track what happened here in the state Senate, congressional, and the presidential races. It appears people voted Republican at the top of the ticket on down and some of our outstanding candidates lost as a result. Floridians are obviously very divided on the vision for the state and the country. We will continue to fight to enact policies that help everyday Floridians.”

Recriminations began almost immediately. House Democrat Anna Eskamani, who cruised to a second term in her Orlando-based District 45, was perhaps the first to speak out Tuesday evening.

“I’m saying it now. We need a whole new direction for the @FlaDems. We are losing too many incredible down-ballot elected officials and candidates right now and it’s not ok. I know we have the potential to be better and do better,” she said on Twitter.

State Rep. Anna Eskamani.State Rep. Anna Eskamani. Credit: Colin Hackley

Eskamani cited failure by many Democrats to campaign around Amendment 2, the minimum wage hike that looked likely to have cleared the 60 percent voter approval threshold. Republican leaders including DeSantis campaigned ardently against the proposal.

“Democratic Party is scared to stand with working people because then the corporations that fund @FlaDems and so many candidates will get mad and stop throwing crumbs at us while they throw a LOT more at Republican Party and caucuses. We lose, the people lose — corporations win,” she tweeted Wednesday.

Early votes, Cuba and Venezuela

William Large, president of the conservative Florida Justice Reform Institute, had called the outcome days before the election in an interview with the Phoenix, citing Democrats’ failure to return enough early votes to counteract what seemed like a strong Trump vote on election day.

To Large, many pre-election forecasts overlooked the saliency of Trump’s policy toward Cuba and Venezuela.

President Obama had moved toward rapproachement with Cuba but Trump reversed course, and he and other Republicans took a hard line toward Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.

“I think he solidified the entire Cuban-American vote behind the Republican banner,” Large said. Venezuelan-Americans, too, “have become loyal Republican voters.”

Additionally, voters in the Panhandle demonstrated “robust loyalty and support for Trump,” he said.

Biden won Miami-Dade with 617,201 votes against 532,409 for Trump. But the president had boosted his 2016 result by a reported 9 percent in a county where Hispanics comprise a quarter of the electorate. Biden’s win wasn’t big enough to offset the GOP vote elsewhere.

Still, the “Cuban voters” angle on Trump’s victory in Florida does not capture the whole picture, said Abel Iraola, press secretary for NextGen Florida, founded by former Democratic presidential candidate Tom Steyer.

“I think that what’s lost there is that the second- and third-generation Cuban Americans — those of us whose parents came here or grandparents came here — are much more likely to be Democrat and vote for Biden,” he said.

“The generational part — you have to look at it as people who have spent all their lives here and people who are coming and adopting this Republican identity,” Iraola said.

A study by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University suggests that had the election been put solely to voters between the ages of 18 and 29, Biden would have won Florida with 64 percent of the votes.

Democrats fell to a three-pronged attack, in Jenne’s view: “All Democrats are socialists and they want to defund the police and they took PPE money that should have gone to help everyday Floridians. Those were all things that resonated very deeply with people,” he said.

That last item involved the state party’s acceptance of COVID-related emergency aid that proved embarrassing when disclosed to the public. The party later returned at least $780,000, according to published reports.

Gov. Ron DeSantis’ view

Ron DeSantisGov. Ron DeSantis addressed reporters about the 2020 election returns on Nov. 4, 2020. Source: Screenshot

Gov. Ron DeSantis — easily the president’s biggest booster around here — called Trump’s victory “significant.” Even “historic.”

“I think his barnstorming — the extent to which this campaigning matters I don’t know. But I think in his case, doing these big events, the electricity it generated when we were in Miami-Dade right on the eve of the election, it was a really incredible thing to do,” the governor told reporters.

He referred to rallies Trump and his family members and Vice President Mike Pence staged in Florida, generally in defiance of social distancing and face-mask guidance, and often accompanied by the governor.

“You have to admit that Donald Trump is very popular in the state of Florida — or more popular than I think Democrats are willing to admit,” said Jenne, policy chairman for the House Democratic caucus.

To DeSantis, it also helped that Trump helped Florida with money for pressing needs including Everglades restoration, hurricane relief, and space infrastructure. “You name it, the president’s been there,” he said.

The governor said Florida’s conduct of the election should serve as an example to other states.

“Perhaps 2020 was the year that we finally vanquished the ghost of Bush v. Gore,” he said.

“If the third most populous state in the country can count 11 million votes, produce a result across the board, why can’t some of these other states that are much smaller?”

Patricia Brigham, president of the League of Women Voters of Florida, agreed with Gov. DeSantis that the election ran smoothly.

Patricia BrighamPatricia Brigham, president of the League of Women Voters of Florida. Credit: www.lwvfl.org

“Florida turned out a historic number of voters — and no matter what the outcome, we can be proud that so many Florida voters voted,” she said.

DeSantis was “really disappointed” in the way news broadcasters called races in various states. He said Florida could have been called by 8:30 p.m., once the early vote came in from Miami-Dade. “There was a real resistance to just recognize reality.”

DeSantis also savaged the polling industry, which he said “has not got elections right since 2012” and “just couldn’t have missed this one, I think, any worse if you look at some of the things that were circulating over these last many weeks and months.”

He declared: “If you’re that bad at your job, maybe some of these prognosticators should find another line of work. Because I can’t think of another line of work where you can be wrong so many times and then still be there to be able to offer analysis going forward.”

DeSantis took no questions but said: “I’ll be back to take questions probably some time before the weekend.”

Phoenix reporter Danielle J. Brown contributed to this story.

https://www.floridaphoenix.com/2020/11/04/fl-democrats-confront-a-hard-truth-we-need-a-whole-new-direction/ 

Florida Justice Reform Institute

‘A stone-cold up-and-down referendum on Donald Trump’: Will FL voters kick him out and pick Biden?

/in

Florida Phoenix

‘A stone-cold up-and-down referendum on Donald Trump’: Will FL voters kick him out and pick Biden?

By Michael Moline – November 2, 2020

precinct Polling place, Florida’s state capital. Credit: Diane Rado.

Whether Donald Trump or Joe Biden captures Florida’s 29 electoral votes largely depends on whether the Democratic Party manages to harvest nearly 600,000 mail-in votes that have not yet been cast — and also outflank the GOP in election-day voting.

As of Sunday, the Republicans had returned more than 3.3 million mail-in and early votes to the Democrats’ 3.4 million, according to Florida Division of Elections data. Republicans had yet to return 440,786 mail-in ballots; for the Democrats, the number was 598,557.

“Supposedly, the polls are talking about this Biden lead. If that’s true, that number should be bigger — a lot bigger,” said William Large, president of the conservative Florida Justice Reform Institute, referring to Democratic votes cast.

William W. Large  William W. Large, president, Florida Justice Reform Institute. Credit. FJRI website.

Large expects more Republicans to turn out on Election Day, which means Democrats need to have banked enough early votes by mail or in person to retain their lead. His estimate is that they’ll need to be more than 200,000 votes ahead.

“If that number is 200,000 or below on Nov. 3, that’s a good thing for Republicans,” he said.

A Biden win in Florida, the nation’s largest swing state (although Texas is looking like a contender for that distinction), likely would signal defeat for Trump.

As Biden himself said during a rally in Broward County last week: “If Florida goes blue, it’s over. It’s over!” (Biden and running mate Kamala Harris have been campaigning heavily in South Florida of late; Trump, Vice President Mike Pence, and Trump’s family members have also rallied supporters in the state.)

An Associated Press analysis suggests Biden has ground for confidence. The news service suggested either candidate can win, but that Biden doesn’t necessarily need to win in Florida if he can carry upper Midwest states that Trump captured four years ago. Pennsylvania is also a key swing state.

Of course, the numbers above don’t tell the whole story. Some 3.7 million Floridians are registered as no party affiliation, or NPA. More than 1.8 million of them had voted early by mail or in person as of Sunday but they had yet to return 355,016 mail-in ballots. Members of “other” parties had 22,602 mail-in ballots as yet unreturned.

Given the history of Florida elections — particularly the Bush v. Gore drama in 2000 — anything seems possible when it comes to calling a winner or loser in the Sunshine State.

Younger, more diverse

Republicans have been expressing confidence for their prospects in the state.

“Joe Biden and Kamala Harris make up the most extreme ticket in history. Between Harris’ praise for defunding the police and promise to end President Trump’s Tax Cuts and Job’s Act, the contrast between Biden-Harris and President Trump’s America First Policies couldn’t be clearer. Floridians will soundly reject Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in November,” Trump Victory spokesperson Emma Vaughn said in a written statement over the weekend.

Rosy Gonzalez Speers, who coordinates down-ballot races for the Florida Democratic Party, acknowledged late last week that the Republicans were catching up in the early vote upon which both the top of the ticket and races for the state Legislature will turn.

Still, she said, NPA voters seem to be turning out at record numbers for Democrats.

“They’re younger, they’re more diverse, and also the majority of them that have voted live in Democratic counties,” Speers said.

“Not a perfect prescription there, but when you look at those three indicators, this is something that shows us that it is likely that maybe NPAs are breaking for Democrats when in 2016 they broke for Republicans.”

About the polls: The FiveThirtyEight Project’s survey of Florida polling shows Biden enjoying small leads in the state, mostly within the statistical margin for error.

Joe Biden Joe Biden. Credit: Joe Biden Facebook page.

A St. Pete Polls survey released Sunday showed Biden with a one-point lead — 49 percent against 48 percent for Trump. The poll was weighted toward Republicans to capture “shy” Trump voters — those disinclined to admit it to the pollster.

Of respondents who already had voted, Biden led, 55 percent to 43 percent for Trump.

The survey showed Biden leading among unaffiliated voters, 50 percent to 47 percent for Trump. It also showed only 82 percent of GOP voters sticking with Trump, compared to 84 percent of Democrats for Biden.

trump President Donald Trump at The Villages in Central Florida, at a campaign rally Oct. 23, 2020.. Credit: YouTube/PBS

The Democrat led among all ethnic groups except for whites. Trump enjoyed a 13-point lead among voters more than 70 years old but Biden carried other age groups, including those aged 50-69.

As for those allegedly shy Trump voters?

“I’ve never met a f—-ng shy Trump voter,” said Mac Stipanovich, the veteran Republican political operative and lobbyist turned never-Trumper who at the moment is registered as a Democrat. (He plans to switch to NPA following the election.)

“They drive down the street with flags on their trucks, stars-and-bars flying, and boat parades and 15 signs in their yards, having fights with you over their masks in Publix.”

Stipanovich believes Trump will lose. “His base is not big enough to win,” he said.

Mac Stipanovich Mac Stipanovich. Photo provided by the subject.

“Has he expanded that base or built a coalition that could produce victory? If he has, there’s no objective evidence of it. To think that he might win, you have to believe that every responsible pollster in America, including Fox News, has gotten it wrong again and again.”

He also pointed to the president’s mixed messages while campaigning.

“Trump has not gotten any real traction. He tried law and order. He tried socialism. He tried Hunter [Biden]. He can’t be disciplined and pick one message. He is flailing,” Stipanovich said.

“Biden has been disciplined to the point of boredom — character and COVID. And he’s winning, apparently. I don’t know if you can complain about a strategy that is doing as well as his appears to be,” he added.

“Having said that, this election isn’t about Joe Biden. This election is about Donald Trump. It is a stone-cold up-and-down referendum on Donald Trump. And Donald Trump is losing that referendum, it seems. He campaigns against himself every day.”

Harvesting ballots

Regarding harvesting those outstanding Dem ballots, Dwight Bullard is working on it. The former state senator is political director for the New Florida Majority, among a raft of progressive organizations coordinating get-out-the-vote efforts in underrepresented Black and Hispanic communities in 19 large counties on behalf of Democrats.

Together, these groups have had around 400 activists in the trenches, by Bullard’s estimate. They’ve made 15 million attempts at contacting voters, including more than 4.2 million text messages, and established some 500,000 conversations with prospects, he said.

The pavement pounding started only a few weeks in advance of early voting.

“It was a bottom-up decision. Our folks that we had transitioned into phone banking and texting were the ones who said, ‘We need to go knock on these doors because we need to go talk to our neighbors directly,’” Bullard said.

The Biden campaign had discouraged face-to-face outreach for safety reasons, given the risk of COVID, until recently but rank-and-file workers deemed it “more important and more impactful often times than a phone call and a text message,” Bullard said.

But any earlier “would have been shortsighted considering what Florida was going through under COVID-19,” he said.

Vote by mail and early vote numbers suggest to Bullard that the effort is moving voters.

“When you look at the overall turnout, it’s substantial. When you dig into the numbers in even greater detail, you’re seeing quite a large turnout of folks who didn’t vote in 2016 and some who have not voted since 2012 choosing to be engaged in this process,” he said.

“Turnout among the Black community is higher than in the last two cycles, 2018 and 2016,” he said. “From what I’ve seen, at the most organic level you’re seeing the Black community really turn out in a significant way.”

Having a Black/South Asian woman on the ballot seems to help. “The optics are important,” Bullard said.

More important is that, because his activists work in these communities year-round, people know they can trust what they say.

“What they view us as is a trusted validator on why they need to vote, why their engagement is important, why it’s important to vote down-ticket,” he said. “They’re understanding the impact of politics in their everyday lives at the hyperlocal level” in terms of immediate needs like bus and train service and social services.

One big event for Democrats was the “Souls to the Polls” drive scheduled for Sunday, mobilizing Black churchgoers to vote. Large, the conservative, conceded it would be a big day for Democrats. “But how well organized is that because of COVID? That’s a question,” he said.

Stipanovich, the never-Trumper, argues that the overall record turnout favors Democrats. As of Sunday, more than 8.7 million Floridians had voted, compared to 6.6 million early votes in 2016.

“Based on the turnout, that’s favorable to Democrats,” Stipanovich said.

“My entire career was based on the premise that the higher the turnout the less likely Republicans were going to get a good result. But it’s going to be close in Florida again. The difference may come down to independents. Biden may win them by about 10 points — 55 to 45,” he said.

Attacks and complications

Vaughn, of the GOP, was scathing in written remarks about a recent Biden rally in South Florida.

“All 10 Joe Biden supporters must be excited for his gaffe-filled rallies today,” she said on Thursday. “Meanwhile, President Trump looks forward to sharing the Great American Comeback with thousands of enthusiastic Floridians in his home state. Go home Biden, your basement misses you.”

Amy Barrett President Donald Trump chose Judge Amy Coney Barrett for his U.S. Supreme Court nominee. Credit: Wikipedia; Rachel Malehorn. Photo from 2018.

Meanwhile, Trump’s behavior in office — including his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, attacks on the Affordable Care Act, and 11th-hour installation of Barrett as a sixth conservative on the U.S. Supreme Court — is mobilizing women voters, including the ones who live in the suburbs, according to Barbara Zdravecky, interim CEO of Ruth’s List in Florida.

The organization trains Democratic women to run for office.

“More people are involved in this election than I’ve seen before, and most of them are women,” she said, and they’re mad about the mishandling of COVID.

“And then, of course, the whole four years of President Trump’s actions accumulated have really just turned a lot of people off.”

They include Republicans.

“I talk to a lot of Republicans, particularly Republican women, who are going for the Democratic ticket this year. And so have my candidates, as they have been talking to people in voting lines. I’ll be very interested in seeing the number of crossovers,” she said.

One complication involves the efforts of the Trump administration to slow down mail delivery. Only last week, video images emerged purporting to show mail-in ballots stacked up, undelivered, in a Postal Service sorting facility in Miami-Dade. Mark Travers, South Florida president for the National Association of Letter Carriers, told the Miami Herald that officials planned to boost resources at the center.

Nationally, another involves the Republican Party’s attempts to make it harder to vote through court actions.

Patricia Brigham, president of the League of Women Voters of Florida, complained that Gov. Ron DeSantis has slow-walked money intended to ease voting. The organization doesn’t endorse candidates but is opposing some of the proposed constitutional amendments on the ballot, including one that would scrap traditional party primaries in favor of a “top-two” system that would include NPAs.

“The state should have made that CARE Act money available for the elections sooner than they did. The supervisors of elections should not have had to wait for that,”  Brigham said, referring to federal COVID relief.

“The state should not come out three days before early voting begins and put out guidance about having a guard by those secure drop boxes. These sort of last-minute instructions or sitting on money that should be distributed as soon as it’s received — those sorts of things shouldn’t happen.”

https://www.floridaphoenix.com/2020/11/02/a-stone-cold-up-and-down-referendum-on-donald-trump-will-fl-voters-kick-him-out-or-pick-biden/

Florida Justice Reform Institute

Florida Justice Reform Institute

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